Falling NASA Satellite Has 1 in 3,200 Chance of Hitting Someone
A defunct satellite scheduled to crash to Earth’s surface during the last week of September has a 1 in 3,200 chance of hitting someone, NASA says.
The 6 ½ ton satellite was decommissioned in 2005 and has been descending ever since. It was originally a climate probe called the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS).
The satellite is estimated to be about the size of a bus, measuring 35 feet long and about 15 feet wide.
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While some of the satellite will burn up during its re-entry into the atmosphere, NASA expects that UARS will mostly break apart and scatter within an area of 500 miles when it collides with Earth.
NASA reports that the satellite currently orbits the Earth at 57 degrees from the equator; therefore falling pieces can be expected to land anywhere between 57 degrees north latitude and 57 degrees south latitude.
At this point it is not possible to predict exactly where the pieces will land, however as UARS gets closer to Earth, NASA says it will be able to more accurately predict its trajectory.
According to NASA, the odds the satellite or any extraneous pieces will hit or injure a person are extremely small at 1 in 3,200 and that the remains of UARS will most likely fall into an ocean.
“Earth is big, the satellite is small; the chance of it hitting a person is very, very small,” said Victoria Samson of the Secure World Foundation to Space.com. “While the idea of something coming at you from outer space is unnerving, there are a lot more realistic threats we should be concerned about. The actual impact to any person is fairly minimal.”
The organization’s original prediction for the collision of the satellite with Earth was for anytime between the end of September and early October.
