Republican Presidential Race: What to Do With The Donald?
Whatever you think of him, Donald Trump is a stick of dynamite thrown into the presidential pond. All the boats have been rocked, and given Trump's potential for more explosiveness, the political waters show little sign of settling down anytime soon.
Donald Trump is so special that we've created a category (and perhaps a word) just for him in our Republican presidential rankings: "The Un-Nominatable Frontrunner."
Trump's tier has partial precedents. Remember when then-Rep. Michele Bachmann (MN), businessman Herman Cain, and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich led national and/or early state polls at various times in the 2012 cycle? There was no way that any of the trio was going to end up as the Republican nominee for president. You could say the same about former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani in the early stages of the 2008 election.
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Friends, this is also true today for The Donald. Or perhaps we should say: If Trump is nominated, then everything we think we know about presidential nominations is wrong.
History has shown that presidential nominations tend to follow a certain set of "rules."
First, the nominee has to have widespread backing from party elites — those in public office (many of whom will have to run on the same election ticket), the people in party leadership positions, large donors, and the heads of factional, well-funded organizations outside the party structure but still under the broader partisan umbrella.
No question Trump has plenty of his own money — if he chooses to spend it — so he may not need sizable donors. But in every other respect, Trump comes up short or altogether empty with party elites. Not only does the Washington, DC crowd want nothing to do with him, but some segments of the party that typically fight the Republican establishment are staying far away. For instance, the Club for Growth, which often supports primary challengers to sitting GOP members of Congress, dislikes Trump.RedState's Erick Erickson, also a frequent opponent of party leadership, disinvited Trump to an event he held in Atlanta last weekend.
Second, a likely nominee needs a layered, professional organization that has been carefully constructed at the national level and in each of the early critical states. Trump has some of this, but all reports suggest he is throwing together most of his organization, only now hiring seasoned second and third-level aides that are essential to victory.
Trump's campaign has had a seat-of-the-pants feel to it, with the candidate relying on his easy access to TV anchors and reporters who are always eager to air Trump's latest stream of consciousness. But Iowa and New Hampshire, in particular, are not won by sound bites and celebrity coverage.
Third, a party winner is a disciplined politician who knows the language of politics and the dangerous curves that exist all along the campaign trail. As the first debate proved beyond doubt, Trump has little knowledge of any of this, and contempt for what he calls "politically correct" conventions. Short cuts in politics catch up with a candidate sooner or later. Moreover, as experienced pols know, you don't win the votes of those you insult.
Finally, veterans of politics understand that many voters become more cautious and thoughtful as the real Election Day — primary or general — approaches. One's vote for president is special, with enormous consequences; after all, this is the most powerful office in the world, still possessing the ability to end civilization as we know it.
Answering a polling question early in the campaign is far different than casting a ballot. Is Trump the kind of person to whom most Republicans (or Americans generally) would entrust the Oval Office? Would voters want to welcome Trump into their homes on television every evening for four years, not as an entertainment show host whose antics can be amusing, but as president of the United States, whose words can move markets and start wars?
Trump is an early season fling for many people, fun while it lasts but doomed to breakup somewhere along the path to the nomination. There have already been some signs this week that his polling may —may — have peaked. Moreover, we need to constantly remind ourselves that few people are paying very close attention to the race right now.
That's not to say Trump won't have consequences for the GOP. For example, somehow the party is going to have to reconcile Trump's supporters with a more establishment nominee. Some candidates will be able to foster unity more easily than others — and this assumes Trump does not run as an independent in fall 2016.
The Summer of Trump is unlikely to turn into a Year of Trump, much less four years of President Trump. Current frontrunner? No question. The Republican nominee for president? Doubtful in the extreme.
Table 1 shows our revamped and streamlined rankings of the 17 Republican presidential contenders. Analysis of the five candidates we believe have at least some chance of winning the nomination, followed by 11 others that we do not think have much of a chance but might influence the race, is below the table.
Table 1: Crystal Ball rankings of 2016 Republican presidential primary field
| First Tier: The Real Contenders | |||
| Candidate | Key Primary Advantages | Key Primary Disadvantages | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jeb Bush Ex-Governor, FL | •Conservative gubernatorial resume •National Bush money and organization, has already raised huge sums •Personifies establishment, which typically produces GOP nominees | •Bush fatigue is real — Jeb cannot avoid George W.'s negatives •Support for Common Core and immigration reform •Personifies establishment, which grassroots loathes | |
| Scott Walker Governor, WI | •Heroic conservative credentials •Checks boxes for many wings of party | •Lack of polish, too-conservative positions could hurt him with party leaders worried about electability •Does lack of college degree matter? | |
| Marco Rubio Senator, FL | •Dynamic speaker and politician •Potential appeal to party insiders & outsiders, plus Hispanics •Generational contrast with Jeb…& Hillary | •Went left on immigration, hurt him with base •Surprisingly anonymous for seeming top-tier contender •Blocked by Bush in home state? | |
| Ted Cruz Senator, TX | •Dynamic debater & canny, often underestimated politician •Anti-establishment nature plays well with base •Strong early fundraising | •Too extreme? •Disliked on both sides of the Senate aisle •Strong Tea Party support ensures establishment resistance to candidacy | |
| John Kasich Governor, OH | •Long moderate-conservative record plus two terms as swing-state Ohio governor •Could be fallback for GOP establishment forces •Potential New Hampshire appeal | •Supported Medicaid expansion, backs Common Core — shares some of Bush's liabilities but lacks Jeb's immense funding •Unscripted style can lead to unforced errors •Jon Huntsman 2.0? | |
| Second Tier: The Un-Nominatable Frontrunner | |||
| Donald Trump Businessman and TV personality | •Can command the stage, has freedom to say anything •Draws crowds & media; high name ID; riveting figure •Billionaire, can self-fund if he wants | •GOP holds mixed views about him, more negative than most of real contenders •More novelty than plausible nominee •Makes outlandish & controversial statements •Strongly opposed by GOP leadership | |
| Third Tier: The Influencers | |||
| Carly Fiorina Former business executive | •The only woman in the field, severe critic of Clinton •Strong on debate stage & on camera •Political outsider, no baggage from office | •Lost only race (2010 Senate) badly •Still largely unknown, no firm base of support •Can she raise big money & build credible political operation? | |
| Ben Carson Neurosurgeon and activist | •Adored by Tea Party grassroots •Good on TV •Political outsider, no baggage from office | •Gaffe-prone •Little chance of establishment backing and funding •Can he build a credible political operation? | |
| Mike Huckabee Ex-Governor, AR | •Well-known from his Fox News program •Strong support from social conservatives •Southerner in Southern-based party | •Disliked by establishment for economic populism & social views — party leaders don't think he's electable •Small fundraising base | |
| Rand Paul Senator, KY | •Support from libertarian and Tea Party wings •National ID and fundraising network; benefits from father's previous efforts | •Dovish views on national security are out of GOP mainstream •May be losing support from father's base by altering positions •Poor fundraising so far | |
| Chris Christie Governor, NJ | •Commanding speaker and stage presence •Very high name ID | •Honeymoon in NJ is long over •Weak favorability among Republicans and general public | |
| Rick Perry Ex-Governor, TX | •Strong campaign team, better candidate than in 2012 | •Bombed in much weaker 2012 field & failed to make first primetime debate •Fundraising drying up | |
| Bobby Jindal Governor, LA | •Deep and wide experience •Knows how to toss red meat to base | •Better on paper than on stump •Deeply unpopular in Louisiana | |
| Rick Santorum Ex-Senator, PA | •Credibility with social conservatives •Been around primary track | •Yesterday's news •Not as economically conservative as others | |
| Lindsey Graham Senator, SC | •Prominent Obama critic •Media savvy and hawkish views on foreign policy | •Vehemently disliked by grassroots •Immigration reform efforts hurt him with conservatives | |
| George Pataki Ex-Governor, NY | •Very long elective experience in a big (Democratic) state — plus 9/11 experience | •Zero grassroots excitement | |
| Jim Gilmore Ex-Governor, VA | •Record as tax-cutter •Military record, intelligence officer during Cold War | •Not strong on the stump •Largely anonymous in party | |
The Real Contenders
Despite the gigantic field of Republicans, we have long maintained that only a small number of these candidates could actually wind up being the GOP nominee. We reorganized our presidential ratings to reflect this. At the end of the day, we consider it very likely that the Republican nominee will come out of the following quintet of Real Contenders: former Gov. Jeb Bush (FL), Gov. Scott Walker (WI), Sen. Marco Rubio (FL), Sen. Ted Cruz (TX), and Gov. John Kasich (OH). Cruz and Kasich are new additions to our top tier but their odds of winning the nomination are significantly lower than the other three, while we regard Bush, Walker, and Rubio as having relatively similar odds.
