Republican Presidential Race: What to Do With The Donald?
As for Rubio and Walker, it's possible that neither of them can make their candidacies as formidable as they imagine. For Rubio, his problem might be an old issue that haunts him: immigration. His position has been difficult to nail down, and his past vote for comprehensive immigration reform will surely be a target. More broadly, Rubio also has not yet had a big moment in this race, nor does he have a clear stronghold among the early states. But like Walker, he is both broadly liked in the party and not as well-known as he would like.
Walker's possible trouble may be more in presentation. He's now a national candidate, which means saturation coverage and attacks. Walker is battle-tested from Wisconsin, but there's nothing like a presidential race — and he has much to learn, and not just about foreign policy. Many party leaders appear inclined to gravitate toward the more polished Bush, Rubio, and even Kasich before him, which could make a difference in a close contest. On the flipside, Walker does have an early-state foothold — Iowa, where he consistently polls at or near the top of the field (the rise of Trump has lowered his numbers there, though).
Should some or all of the top three contenders wilt, the other two first-tier candidates may be able to take advantage. Yet, just as the Bush-Rubio-Walker triumvirate has problems, Cruz and Kasich have flaws that will be exploited. As mentioned earlier, Cruz is a hard-right candidate. Though he's posted impressive fundraising numbers so far, the party establishment will be wary of Cruz should his candidacy pick up steam. Cruz's abrasive interactions with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and other colleagues, along with his leading role in the government shutdown in 2013, have made him a bête noirein establishment circles. Of course, this is part of his appeal to the conservative grassroots, but the party leadership still has a great influence on the outcome. It's hard to win at anything without friends among your peers.
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Meanwhile, Kasich is the media's favorite GOP underdog candidate, in part because he isn't dogmatic and has earned widespread popularity in his key state. Kasich went over his Republican-controlled legislature's head to expand Medicaid in Ohio, a move sure to generate fierce criticism should he become a threat to the leading candidates. He also backs a path to legal status for undocumented immigrants, and he has previously been open to creating a route to citizenship. These positions will attract some center-right votes, but they may also put him squarely in the crosshairs of the same conservatives going after Rubio.
Ultimately, we see Kasich (and Bush, at least in rhetorical and image terms) as positioned a little to the left of the conservative center of the GOP, while Walker and Cruz are to its right. Rubio is harder to place: He's ideologically in the conservative group, but stylistically more moderate. So perhaps the nomination will be decided by whether a couple of the party's factions can unify behind a single candidate in this group.
The Influencers
The remaining 11 candidates not named Trump on our list do not, we believe, have any real chance of winning the nomination. But instead of focusing too much on what they cannot do, let's examine what they can do: influence the race in some way. These candidates, or a few of them, might help determine the identity of the nominee.
There was near-universal acknowledgment that former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, who badly lost a 2010 Senate race in California, dominated the early "kid's table" debate last week. The positive buzz was reinforced during the main event when Fiorina was featured decrying President Obama's pending nuclear deal with Iran during the earlier session — a free campaign ad for Fiorina during the middle of the most-watched program in cable news history and by far the most-viewed primary debate ever. There's already an indication that a flood of news coverage is moving polls in her favor, at least in the short term.
It's impossible not to lump Fiorina in with former neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who has consistently polled in the mid-to-high single digits nationally.
Fiorina and Carson stand out by being the only female (Fiorina) and black (Carson) Republican candidates. They also share important attributes with Trump: They have never held elected office and made their names outside of politics. If and when Trump gives up his national lead, it's possible that one or both of these candidates might pop up to the top of the heap, at least briefly. Trump, Fiorina, and Carson have all made waves, which does speak to a hunger for outsiders in the GOP. But just because they are enjoying some success in the race doesn't necessarily mean they will be there at the end of it.
The flip side of Fiorina and Carson's lack of political experience is that the burden of proof is on them to show that they can build the kind of state-level organizations needed to win individual caucuses and primaries. If they cannot, their best moments might be limited to the pre-voting period, like last cycle's prominent but never-elected contender, Herman Cain.
Next is former Gov. Mike Huckabee (AR), who showed again during the debate that he's a force with a distinct audience: evangelical Christians. None of the other candidates can match the former pastor's cultural connection to these voters who play a major role in many Republican contests, such as Iowa and South Carolina, as well as several Southern states that will make up the so-called SEC (Southeastern Conference) primary on March 1.
Sen. Rand Paul (KY) and Gov. Chris Christie (NJ) engaged in a tense spat during the debate about domestic spying programs, with Paul making a libertarian argument that such programs are overblown while Christie defended them and mocked Paul's criticism. Both of these candidates are fading, and the aggressiveness of their exchange suggested they were trying to make a splash to boost flagging efforts. If anyone from the kids' table climbs into the next debate — Fiorina? — someone on stage in primetime a week ago will have to be dropped. Christie and Paul are the likeliest candidates.
However, both could influence the voting in New Hampshire. Paul's father, Ron, actually finished second there in 2012. Meanwhile, Christie is in direct competition with Bush and Kasich in the Granite State. The New Jersey governor could take votes from both, or if he drops out, free up votes for more moderate contenders.
Former Gov. Rick Perry (TX) and Gov. Bobby Jindal (LA) have more appeal in the states with higher evangelical populations, though the news that Perry has stopped paying his staff must raise existential questions about his campaign.
Former Sen. Rick Santorum (PA), who (like Huckabee in 2008) was his party's runner-up in 2012, has a somewhat similar profile to Huckabee, but the former Arkansas governor is a more important factor in the race now.
Huckabee, Santorum, Perry, and Jindal will all set their sights on Iowa more than less conservative and evangelical New Hampshire. Walker and Cruz are doing the same. If these candidates all stay in the race, the eventual winner in the Hawkeye State may break 2012's record, held by Santorum, of the smallest percentage of the caucus vote ever received by any Republican winner (24.54%, just ahead of Romney's 24.51% that year).
Sen. Lindsey Graham (SC) could play a similar role to Paul and Christie in his home state of South Carolina should he remain in the contest that long. But if Graham doesn't show strength by mid-February, the senior senator from the Palmetto State may not want to be embarrassed on his home turf.
To the extent that former Gov. George Pataki (NY) or former Gov. Jim Gilmore (VA) could influence the race, it may also be in New Hampshire, where they are campaigning more extensively. It's hard to imagine either getting traction there — or anywhere, really — but a percentage point or two could affect the order of finish in a contest with so many names on the ballot.
Our presidential tiers have not seen their last shuffling. We try to expect the unexpected, just as the Trump bubble demonstrates. Monthly debates, a quickening pace, and a torrent of spending will upend our rankings in ways we can only guess at between now and the start of actual voting in Iowa next year.
This article was originally published at Sabato's Crystal Ball.
