Trump indictment: 4 findings from polls on Americans' views on fmr. president's arrest, election chances

By Ryan Foley, Christian Post Reporter Tuesday, April 04, 2023

President Donald J. Trump looks at diagrams and photos during his meeting with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis Tuesday, April 28, 2020, in the Oval Office of the White House. | White House/ Shealah Craighead

3. Trump sees a surge in support in the Republican presidential primary ...

The RealClearPolitics average of polls that asked voters for their preferences in the Republican Party presidential primaries taken over the past two weeks now shows Trump securing 50.8% support among Republican primary voters. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, widely seen as a likely 2024 Republican presidential contender even though he has not formally announced a bid, comes in second at 24.6%, with all other declared and potential candidates failing to make it out of the single digits.

The current RealClearPolitics average consists of four polls taken before news of Trump’s indictment broke Thursday and four polls conducted either partially or entirely after the announcement.

A poll conducted by Trafalgar Group from March 31–April 2 measured Trump’s support at 56% among the Republican primary electorate, with DeSantis securing 23% support. Former Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., one of the former president’s most ardent critics in the Republican party, secured 10% support in the survey.

A poll conducted by Reuters/Ipsos from March 31–April 3 found Trump securing 48% in the Republican primary, with DeSantis in a distant second at 19%. All other candidates included in the survey received less than 10% support.

A survey spearheaded by InsiderAdvantage pegged Trump’s support at 57%, followed by DeSantis at 24%. Voters surveyed in a Yahoo News/YouGov poll conducted on March 30, the day of the indictment, and March 31 gave Trump 52% support and DeSantis 21%.

While the four earliest polls included in the RealClearPolitics average were taken before the indictment became public Thursday, they were conducted after Trump sent out a post on his social media platform Truth Social on March 18 signaling that he would likely be arrested the following week.

Polls conducted by Harvard-Harris, Quinnipiac University, Fox News and Cygnal in the week leading up to his indictment found Trump receiving 50%, 47%, 54% and 42% support, respectively.

In all the polls, DeSantis was the second most popular choice, receiving 24%, 33%, 24% and 29% support, respectively. Over the past year, Trump’s support among the Republican primary electorate has never dropped below 43% in the RealClearPolitics average and it has never risen above 53.3%. His smallest lead over DeSantis was measured at 13 points on Jan. 23.

Trump consistently enjoyed leads of at least 20 points that rose to as high as 34 points in the RealClearPolitics average of Republican primary polls until after the 2022 midterm elections, when Republicans’ lackluster performance in many statewide races caused GOP voters to ponder an alternative. As recently as Sunday, his lead over DeSantis was only 19.4%, illustrating the effect of the most recent polls on the overall average.