Trump indictment: 4 findings from polls on Americans' views on fmr. president's arrest, election chances

By Ryan Foley, Christian Post Reporter Tuesday, April 04, 2023

U.S. President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden participate in the final presidential debate at Belmont University on October 22, 2020, in Nashville, Tennessee. This is the last debate between the two candidates before the election on November 3. | Getty Images/Chip Somodevilla

4. … But not necessarily in the general election

Only one poll measuring voter support in a hypothetical general election matchup between Trump and his successor, President Joe Biden, has been taken since the indictment first began dominating international headlines. That poll, conducted by Yahoo News/YouGov, found that 45% of general election voters would back Biden while 43% would support Trump. While not necessarily indicative of an electoral college victory for Biden, the poll suggests that the president has a small edge as the race remains a coin flip.

The RealClearPolitics average of polls measuring voter preferences in a Trump-Biden rematch only includes the Yahoo News/YouGov poll and two additional polls taken after Trump’s March 18 Truth Social post. One poll, conducted by Quinnipiac, also showed Biden leading Trump by 2 points while a Harvard-Harris poll found Trump leading Biden by 4 points.

These polls, combined with older polls taken earlier this year, give Biden an average lead of 1 percentage point in the RealClearPolitics average of a Trump-Biden rematch. However, the polling average is likely skewed by a Susquehanna poll conducted in late February showing Biden with a 13-point lead and securing 52% support. All other polls suggest a close race, with neither candidate reaching 50%.